Packers at Bills Prediction

Really surprised how much negativity the Packers have gathered entering this game against the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills are only 4-4.5 underdogs against the Packers, since the common view is a home team gets 3 points this means that the “money” thinks the 10-3 Packers are only a 1-1.5 point better team than the 7-6 Bills.  To me, this just seems crazy.  I’m not a betting man, but if I was, I would put my money on the Packers.

Why this negativity?  I think it comes down to 3 things:

  • Kyle Orton – Based on his win when QB of the Chiefs over the Packers in 2011, spoiling the Packers perfect regular season, he seems to be viewed as a Packers killer.
  • Bills Defensive Line – The Bills defense leads the league in sacks and gets a ton of pressure rushing only 4 linemen. Being able to pressure Rodgers with 4 and dedicate 7 to coverage is supposed to shutdown the MVP favorite.
  • Packers road record – There seems to be a lot of agreement that the Packers are a different team at home than on the road. Their 3-3 road record seems to justify this position.

Will the Packers struggle in Buffalo?  They probably will to some extent, I doubt it will be an easy game.  But the Packers are clearly the better team and more often than not the better team will win after 60 minutes.

For this prediction I see a competitive game, but just too much Rodger, Nelson, Cobb and Lacy, Starks and company for the Bills to handle.  I also expect a much better effort from the Packers defense than they showed against the Falcons.   Prediction: Packers 31-20

Season Record: 12-1

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